Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares occurred, mostly in Region 220 (S12E21). This region has decayed somewhat since yesterday. Other disk regions are small and magnetically simple. New Region 222 (S06W03) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 220.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Dec 152
  Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        11 Dec 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec to 14 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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