Viewing archive of Tuesday, 10 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An M1 x-ray flare occurred
at 10/1226 UTC. An optical flare report for this flare was not
received. Region 220 (S12E33) is the largest group on the disk.
Other disk regions are relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 220 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 161 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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