Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. A few minor C-class flares were observed today. The largest event of the period was a C2.5/Sf flare with an associated eruptive prominence on the east limb from newly numbered Region 220 (S12E47). Available data suggests that there may have been some interaction from Region 218 (S20E55) during this event. Region 214 (N13W83) has begun to quietly exit the west limb. Regions 219 (S05W25) and 221 (N22E61) were also assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels. C-class activity continues to be likely from Region 220.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 156
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  008/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  006/010-006/010-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/23X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M7.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M7.0
22001M6.17
32000M4.46
42022M4.0
52014M3.79
ApG
1200144G2
2200327G2
3199721G2
4201727G1
5200421G1
*since 1994

Social networks