Viewing archive of Monday, 2 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N10E35) produced the largest event of the period, a C9/Sf flare at 02/1927 UTC. This region has undergone minor growth in size and spot count and shown an increase in magnetic complexity over the past 24 hours. Region 207 (S20E06) remains the largest region on the visible disk, and produced a C1/Sf flare at 02/2033 UTC. An impressive partial-halo CME was visible over the northwest limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery starting at about 02/1750 UTC, but a lack in corresponding observations of notable x-ray enhancement or optical flare activity suggests a likely backside source for this event. Two new regions were numbered today: Region 211 (S08E04) and Region 212 (N13E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a slight chance for moderate flare activity during the next three days. Region 208 appears to be the most likely source for possible M-class activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is likely to persist at high levels for the next one to three days.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Dec 146
  Predicted   03 Dec-05 Dec  155/160/175
  90 Day Mean        02 Dec 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec  016/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  010/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  012/015-010/012-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec to 05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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