Viewing archive of Wednesday, 27 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C6/Sf from Region 198 (S18W75) at 27/0119 UTC. Four new regions were numbered today. Of these, new Region 207 (S19E69) is the largest and most complex, and produced five subfaint C-class flares today. The smaller and somewhat less complex new Region 204 (N16E40) produced two similar events during the period. The other new and existing regions on the visible disk are all small and simply structured spot groups, and produced no observed flares today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 198 remains a potential source of M-class activity until it transits the west limb on day two of the forecast period. Region 207 appears to present an additional possible source of moderate flare activity for the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An interplanetary shock passage was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 26/2110 UTC, in likely association with the CME activity that occurred on 24 November. A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed at 26/2150 UTC (18 nT on the Boulder magnetometer) and was followed by an isolated period of minor storming at mid and high latitudes. Predominantly active conditions followed and persisted for most of the remaining summary period, dropping to mainly unsettled levels near the end. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit saw a tenfold decrease from the high values observed yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are possible for the next 24-48 hours as the current geomagnetic storm activity continues to wane.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Nov 143
  Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        27 Nov 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Nov  015/024
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov to 30 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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