Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 November 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Events were limited to small C-class flares observed through the period. A new region was numbered today as Region 203 (N08E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain low. Occasional C-class events continue to be possible from Region 197 (N24W84) and 198 (S18W61). A chance for an isolated M-class event is also possible from Region 198.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels today. The observed Afr for 25 Nov is estimated due to missing data.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible for 27 Nov as a result of the activity associated with the CME observed on 24 Nov.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Nov 142
  Predicted   27 Nov-29 Nov  145/150/155
  90 Day Mean        26 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Nov  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Nov  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Nov-29 Nov  015/020-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Nov to 29 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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