Viewing archive of Monday, 25 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C1 event was observed at 25/1710 UTC. A 33 degree filament located near N10E27 disappeared between 24/1847-1950 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. This event also produced a partial halo CME which was observed in the LASCO imagery. Region 198 (S18W48) is showing a slight decay both in sunspot count and magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 198 has the potential for producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled for the forecast period. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible late on 26 Nov through 27 Nov as a result of the CME observed on 24 Nov.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Nov 137
  Predicted   26 Nov-28 Nov  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        25 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov  008/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Nov  012/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov  010/012-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%35%
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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