Viewing archive of Monday, 25 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 329 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated
long duration C1 event was observed at 25/1710 UTC. A 33 degree
filament located near N10E27 disappeared between 24/1847-1950 UTC
with an associated Type II radio sweep. This event also produced a
partial halo CME which was observed in the LASCO imagery. Region
198 (S18W48) is showing a slight decay both in sunspot count and
magnetic complexity. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 198 has the potential for producing an isolated M-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately unsettled for the forecast period.
Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible late on 26
Nov through 27 Nov as a result of the CME observed on 24 Nov.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 137 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 140/145/150 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 012/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 010/012-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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