Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 198 (S18W36) produced a long duration C1/Sf event at 24/1809 UTC. This region remains mostly unchanged and continues to maintain its beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 202 (N14E66).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 198 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Nov 146
  Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  150/155/160
  90 Day Mean        24 Nov 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Nov  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  010/012-010/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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