Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of the period was an optically uncorrelated C4.6 x-ray event that occurred at 23/0804 UTC. Region 198 (S18W25) produced multiple low level C-class flares during the period. This region underwent no significant changes in magnetic complexity or penumbral coverage (520 millionths in areal coverage). The remaining numbered regions were mostly quiescent throughout the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Minor to major storm conditions were experienced between 23/0300 to 0600 UTC due to high speed solar wind resulting from the from the favorably positioned coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. Active conditions are possible (mostly at high latitudes) due to the elevated solar wind speed through day one of the forecast period as the effects from the coronal hole subside.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Nov 148
  Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  150/160/165
  90 Day Mean        23 Nov 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  017/024
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Nov  015/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  010/015-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov to 26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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