Viewing archive of Wednesday, 20 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
198 (S18E15) produced an impulsive M1/Sn flare at 20/1807 UTC.
Magnetic complexity exhibits little change from yesterday and areal
spot coverage remained unchanged. The trailing most spots are all
that remain visible in white-light from Region 191 (S18W81) as it
transits the west limb. There was no flare activity recorded from
this region today although a rare spray feature was observed in the
H-alpha wavelength at 20/1938 UTC overlaying the region. The
remaining regions were quiescent during the period. Regions 199
(N27E13) and 200 (N00E71) were newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Region 198 has the potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. NASA/ACE
depicted a modest increase in the solar wind speed beginning at
approximately 20/1000 UTC. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field made a sharp southward movement just prior to 20/1600
UTC which brought about the onset of active conditions at all
latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active conditions,
through the forecast period, as a favorably positioned high speed
stream coronal hole becomes geoeffective. Isolated minor storm
conditions could occur during the high speed streams influence,
especially at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 159 Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 155/150/150 90 Day Mean 20 Nov 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 012/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 015/018-015/020-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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