Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 323 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4 flare at 19/0737 UTC. Region 191
(S18W68) continues a gradual decay in penumbral coverage and spot
count. Region 198 (S18E28) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral
coverage but an increase in spot count. The leader spot of Region
198 continues to show magnetic complexity that could develop into a
delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 191 and Region 198 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Coronal hole effects are
expected on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Nov 168 Predicted 20 Nov-22 Nov 165/160/155 90 Day Mean 19 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Nov 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Nov 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 008/012-008/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Nov to 22 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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