Viewing archive of Monday, 18 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. Region 198 (S18E43)
produced an M7.4/1f flare at 18/0208 UTC. Region 198 has increased
in penumbral coverage and has increased in magnetic complexity to a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration. A polarity mixing is evident in
the leader spot and could be developing a weak delta configuration.
Region 191 (S18W55) is in a slight decay phase but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 198 and Region 191 have the potential for
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to
be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 179 Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 18 Nov 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 012/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 010/010-008/012-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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