Viewing archive of Monday, 11 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69) produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at 11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09 November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified in tomorrow's forecast product.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M80%70%50%
Class X10%05%01%
Proton10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 185
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%40%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%50%20%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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