Viewing archive of Monday, 11 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69)
produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at
11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was
accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have
simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively
quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the
disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class
flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC
and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The
arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09
November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible
on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images
received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare
mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability
forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI below may be modified
in tomorrow's forecast product.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| Class M | 80% | 70% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 185 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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