Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W55)
produced an M2/2n at 10/0321 UTC. This region seems to have
simplified a little over the past 48 hours but still remains
relatively large and magnetically complex. Region 191 (S18E51)
produced a few C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 10/1136
UTC. This sunspot group is of comparable size to Region 180 but so
far does not seem to be as magnetically complex.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 180 and 191.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
CME material noted yesterday appears to have passed. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress (start--09/1920 UTC and
404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC). The current proton flux is about 40
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12-24 hours. A shock
is expected to arrive by the latter half of UTC 11 November in
response to yesterday's M4/CME event. Active to storm conditions
are expected following the shock arrival. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue and proton fluxes may briefly
increase as the shock passes.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 191 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 003/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 015/018-020/025-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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