Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2002 ::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S10W41)
produced an M4/2B flare at 09/1323 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
type II/IV radio sweeps, a 760 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, and an
apparent earth-directed CME. Otherwise only C-class flares occurred,
mostly in Region 180 but also from Region 191 (S17E63).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of energetic
flares with a slight chance of M-level activity in 191.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field became
somewhat disturbed after 09/1800 UTC in response to a shock observed
in the solar wind at about 09/1755 UTC. Further analysis of the
solar wind data since 09/2100 UTC suggests that this structure is
CME material rather than related to a high-speed stream as suggested
in the original filing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton
event began at 09/1920 UTC, following the M4 flare mentioned in Part
IA, and remains in progress. The current greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is about 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Active
conditions are expected late on 11 November in response to the
M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 191 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 010/012-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
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