Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 November 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N18W36) is in decay
phase, but produced a C7/Sf flare at 06/2316Z. Region 180 (S10W14)
continues to grow and now maintains three different delta
configurations in a spot group nearing 600 millionths of areal
coverage. Despite its size and apparent complexity, this region has
been relatively quiet, producing only occasional C-class flares. New
region 190 (S22E54) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 180 and 177 have potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed
stream flow is declining, following peak speeds that exceeded 600
km/s. The sustained southward IMF Bz that persisted for the past few
days also appears to have ended. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
during local nighttime hours. We are expecting to transition back
into a high speed stream on day three as a recurrent coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 190 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 190/190/185 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 012/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 008/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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