Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 November 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Nov 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 310 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Nov 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N17W22) produced the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf flare at 05/2201Z. This region has shown some decay and has been relatively quiet since producing the C9 flare. Region 180 (S10W01) continues to develop both in size and complexity. It now exhibits one, maybe two, delta configurations in a spot group exceeding 550 millionths of areal coverage. Several C-class flare were observed in this region, the largest being a C7/Sf at 0532Z. An associated Type II sweep (405 km/s) and CME were also observed, but the CME did not appear to be earthward directed. Three new regions were numbered today, and two of them - Region 187 (N07E07) and 188 (N11E22) produced minor C-class flares late in the period. Region 189 (N12E56) was also numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 180 will likely produce C and M-class activity. Region 177 has potential for a small M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with minor storm periods at high latitudes. High speed coronal hole effects with persistent southward Bz are causing the disturbance. There are also indications of a weak transient passage late in the period, which is enhancing this disturbance. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active periods with occasional minor, or even major storm periods at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
Class M55%55%55%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Nov 185
  Predicted   07 Nov-09 Nov  190/190/190
  90 Day Mean        06 Nov 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Nov  015/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Nov  015/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Nov-09 Nov  012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Nov to 09 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm11%06%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%35%25%
Minor storm30%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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