Viewing archive of Monday, 28 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 301 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/1n flare at 1205 UTC from Region 162 (N25W59). Region 162 continues to show flux emergence and consolidation in the western portion of the trailer spots where the group has a delta configuration. Additional frequent C-class subflares were produced by this region throughout the day. New Region 173 (S17W69) emerged on the disk today and new Region 172 (S17E44) was assigned. An erupting prominence was observed near the northeast limb beginning around 2200 UTC and was associated with a narrow CME in LASCO as well as a type II sweep with shock velocity of 1015 km/s. The event was promptly followed by a back-sided full halo CME which was first observed in LASCO at 2326 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate because of Region 162. There continues to be a slight chance for major flare activity from this region as well. The current observations of strong activity behind the east limb suggest that there is likely to be a gradual increase in background levels and activity levels over the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind signatures continue to indicate the presence of a high speed solar wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days as the currently enhanced conditions are expected to subside.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Oct 158
  Predicted   29 Oct-31 Oct  155/155/160
  90 Day Mean        28 Oct 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Oct  013/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Oct  014/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Oct-31 Oct  012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Oct to 31 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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