Viewing archive of Sunday, 27 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 300 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional low-level C-class flares,
all from Region 162 (N26W43). Region 162 showed emergence of new
flux in the northwest portion of the trailing spots, leading to the
formation of a new delta configuration. A large, southern polar
crown filament lifted of the disk around 0900 UTC on the 27th and
was observed as a small CME in the LASCO C3 field of view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. There is a fair chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 162. The newly formed delta
configuration also poses a slight threat for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active during the past 24
hours. The magnetosphere continues to be under the influence of a
high speed solar wind stream with persistently negative orientation
of the interplanetary magnetic field component Bz. The greater the 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next 12-24 hours due
to persistent effects of the high speed solar wind stream.
Predominantly unsettled levels are expected for the second and third
days.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Oct 157 Predicted 28 Oct-30 Oct 155/155/155 90 Day Mean 27 Oct 177
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Oct 016/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Oct 016/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Oct-30 Oct 015/015-012/012-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Oct to 30 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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