Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 162 (N26W04) produced
the largest of the few flares occurring today, an impulsive C7/1n at
1810UTC. Modest discrete frequency bursts and a type IV sweep
accompanied the flare. The flare site was just west of the large
leader spot, far from the seemingly more complicated central portion
of this elongated group. The serpentine plage field spans the full
extent of the region. Two new regions were assigned, Region 168
(N24W66) and 169 (S19E75).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The disturbance was fueled by high speed solar
wind (approx. 700 km/s), emanating from a large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The speed began to increase substantially
around 0800UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, as the high speed solar wind continues to buffet the
magnetosphere. Conditions are then expected return to more normal
levels during the last 48 hours, as the solar wind calms.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 160 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 160/155/155 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 030/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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