Viewing archive of Monday, 21 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 20/2137 UTC on the southwest limb. The most likely source is Region 154 (S14W75). Region 162 (N11E40) produce a number of minor C-class events. This region has shown a possible weak delta magnetic configuration developing in the intermediate spots. Region 160 (S22W40) has exhibited decay in area coverage and spot count.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind speed has continued to gradually decrease, ending the period near 525 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A chance of isolated active conditions are possible on day one and two of the period due to activity from the M1.8/Type II event on 20 October.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
Class M45%40%35%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Oct 183
  Predicted   22 Oct-24 Oct  175/175/175
  90 Day Mean        21 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct  008/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Oct  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct  010/012-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct to 24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%

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