Viewing archive of Sunday, 13 October 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was an unusual flare from the spotless plage of Region 150 (S09W48): a C4/1F event, with associated Type II/IV radio sweeps, at 13/1757 UTC. Estimated Type-II sweep velocity was 448 km/s. SOHO/LASCO imagery was not available for further analysis of any associated CME activity. Region 149 (N16E20) produced a weak C-flare earlier in the period. New Region 159 (S12E73) was numbered today, appearing as a negative-polarity single spot some distance behind the similarly configured Region 158 (S09E62), which rotated into view yesterday. Limb proximity prevents further analysis.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low. A chance for isolated M-class activity still exists for Region 149 and Region 139 (N08W72).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today and briefly exceeded event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. A slight chance for elevated activity exists for day three, in association with the possible CME activity discussed in section 1A above.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M25%25%20%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 179
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/175/175
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  007/008-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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