Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 October 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 285 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C2.6 flare at 12/1922UTC, without a correlating optical report. Region 149 (N16E34) increased somewhat in size today. Region 139 (N08W59) remains the largest group on the visible disk, retaining mixed polarities within its penumbral area, but appears relatively stable and quiescent. Two new regions were numbered today, Regions 157 (N17E49) and 158 (S08E80). The latter appears as a large unipolar spot near the east limb, which may be the leader of a larger group rotating onto the visible disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate activity. Regions 149 and 139 are both potential sources for isolated moderate flares during the period. Region 139 will rotate off the visible disk by the end of the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mainly quiet to unsettled, with one active period observed during 12/0900-1200 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly reached high levels and exceeded event threshold today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
Class M30%30%25%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Oct 180
  Predicted   13 Oct-15 Oct  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        12 Oct 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Oct  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Oct-15 Oct  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Oct to 15 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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