Viewing archive of Friday, 11 October 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The most interesting event of the period was a long-duration C3/Sf event at 11/1719 UTC, with an associated bright prominence on the west limb near S15. The presumed source is Region 143 (S16, L=017), which had rotated beyond the west limb early in the period. Region 139 (N09W46) was a source of some lesser C-class activity during the period, and remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk, with moderate but stable complexity in its delta magnetic configuration. Region 149 (N15E48) has exhibited some growth and produced two C-class flares during the period. Two new regions emerged on the disk and were numbered today: 155 (S09W53) and 156 (N09E10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 139 and 149 are both potential sources of isolated moderate flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels but remained below event threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 179
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  180/185/180
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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