Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-flares occurred. Region 139 (N11W33) remains the largest sunspot group but has not produced significant activity. The region appears to have changed little. New Regions 153 (S05E47) and 154 (S12E68) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
Class M40%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Oct 172
  Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  175/180/185
  90 Day Mean        10 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  009/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%10%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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