Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-flares
occurred. Region 139 (N11W33) remains the largest sunspot group but
has not produced significant activity. The region appears to have
changed little. New Regions 153 (S05E47) and 154 (S12E68) were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 172 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 175/180/185 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 009/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 010/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 010/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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