Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 October 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W19) continues to be relatively stable in sunspot structure and magnetic complexity. It has not produced significant flare activity for three days. Several new sunspot regions were numbered: 146 (S10E25), 147 (S03E39), 148 (S21E70), 149 (N16E72), 150 (S09W05), and 151 (S14E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 139 remains the most likely candidate for producing M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The most active periods were from 10/0600-1200 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the first day of the forecast period, becoming quiet to unsettled on day two and three. Isolated substorms remain a possibility.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 167
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  019/034
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm30%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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