Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 October 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Oct 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 134 (N12W15) and
Region 137 (S18E21) both produced low C-class flares during the
period. Region 134 continues to retain a delta magnetic
configuration and has grown in overall area coverage. Region 137
has also grown in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. A new region was numbered today as Region 138
(N09W11).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 and 137 both have potential for producing
an M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions.
Although the exact source for this activity is unknown, solar wind
data suggests a transient signature.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Active periods are
possible on 02-03 October due to several CME's observed on 30
September.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Oct 140 Predicted 02 Oct-04 Oct 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 01 Oct 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep 021/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct 030/035 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 010/015-015/020-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct to 04 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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