Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 134 (N12E11)
produced an M2/2n event at 29/0639 UTC and a C9/1n at 29/1449 UTC.
This region has grown slightly in white light coverage and retains a
delta magnetic configuration. Region 125 (S09W78) produced a long
duration C7/0f event at 29/0859 UTC. Two new regions were numbered
today as Region's 136 (S27W36) and 137 (S16E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 has the potential for producing M-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
for September 29 - October 1 due to a coronal hole passage.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Sep 138 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 140/145/145 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 015/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep to 02 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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