Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours, with
occasional, low-level C-class flares. Region 119 (S15W88) rotated
off the disk today. The largest region on the disk is 132 (N19W41)
which is a compact group of 400 millionths area with a beta-delta
magnetic configuration. Region 132 was mostly unchanged during the
past 24 hours. Region 130 (N06E10) showed growth but was otherwise
stable. Region 134 (N10E64) grew during the past 24 hours and
produced numerous subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
during the next three days. There is a slight chance for an isolated
M-class event from regions 132, 127, or 130.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 153 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 179
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 003/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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