Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest flare of the past day was a C3/Sf at 24/1602 UTC in Region 119 (S13W76). This region continues to decay slowly. The rate of growth in Region 132 (N19W28) has decreased since yesterday. New Region 134 (N11E79) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 119 or 132.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 158
  Predicted   25 Sep-27 Sep  150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  000/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  003/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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