Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 September 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C4/1f flare from Region 125 (S08E55). An associated Type II radio sweep and CME was observed with this flare, but the ejecta was not earthward directed. Region 119 (S14W10) produced occasional low C-class flares. This region continues to develop and a weak delta configuration is now evident. Region 105 (S08W83) also produced minor C-class flares as it rotates around the west limb. New Region 126 (S23E75) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Developing Region 119 has best potential for a low M-class flare. There is still a small chance for a low M-class flare from Region 105 on the west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. A weak shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft just before 19/0600Z. Solar wind speed gradually increased to over 750 km/s by late in the period, but total magnetic field measurements and densities remained very low. This disturbance is likely associated with the C8 flare and CME observed on 17 September. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one. Unsettled conditions are expected to prevail after the current disturbance subsides.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Sep 165
  Predicted   20 Sep-22 Sep  165/160/155
  90 Day Mean        19 Sep 178
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Sep  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep  020/020-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep to 22 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%20%
Minor storm30%10%05%
Major-severe storm15%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%25%
Minor storm40%15%05%
Major-severe storm20%10%01%

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