Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 105 (S07W31) produced the largest flare during the period, an M1/Sf flare which occurred at 15/1738 UTC with associated minor discrete radio bursts. Slow decay continues in this region as satellite spots and penumbral coverage diminish. Region 114 (S12W15) produced a single optically correlated flare today, a C1/Sf flare occurring at 15/1538 UTC. The delta magnetic class spot seen yesterday is no longer evident, decay of spot cluster continues. Region 103 (N16W84) produced a C1/Sf flare at 15/0926 UTC and has begun to exit the visible disk. New Regions 116 (S09E75) and 117 (N15E05) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded event threshold today at 15/1140 UTC (max flux 1620 pfu's at 15/1625 UTC). Levels remain above event threshold at the time of this writing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may remain elevated throughout the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 188
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep  185/180/180
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  007/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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