Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Analysis of recent data indicating a restructuring of the magnetic field and the materialization of satellite spots warranted the separation of the two main clusters of spots in Region 105 (now centered at S07W18). Newly numbered Region 114 (S12W02) is the trailing portion of spots previously included in Region 105. Region 114 produced the largest flare of the period, a C4.5/Sf at 14/1831 UTC, and at the time of this writing, data shows only a very weak delta class spot remaining indicating continued decay of this region. Region 105 produced several C-class events today, the largest was a C4.1/Sf flare occurring at 14/1453 UTC, this region has also shown decay during the period. H-alpha imagery suggests both these regions were simultaneously responsible for the intermittent and slightly elevated x-ray flux seen during the latter part of the day. The remaining numbered regions were quiet. New Region 115 (S03E45) was also assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 105 and 114 are both capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects subsided near mid-period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 14/1130 UTC and remains at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to return to quiet to unsettled conditions throughout the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels during much of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Sep 207
  Predicted   15 Sep-17 Sep  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        14 Sep 176
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Sep  009/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Sep  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Sep-17 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Sep to 17 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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