Viewing archive of Friday, 13 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 105 (S08E03) produced a C1/Sf flare at 12/2337 UTC, which was the largest during the period. Even so, it remains the largest and most magnetically complex region on the visible disk. It's dominant trailing spot retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 103 (N16W58) showed some decay in penumbral coverage and exhibited no significant activity today. Region 107 (N11E03) underwent little change and was quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. M-class activity remains possible from regions 105 and 107.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An isolated period of minor storm conditions existed at mid-latitudes from 13/0600 to 0900 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects continued to be the main source of the elevated activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 13/1620 UTC, reached a maximum value of 1070 pfu at 13/1805 UTC, and fell below threshold at value at 13/1810 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of the period as the coronal hole high speed stream effects subside. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit may be elevated into day one of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Sep 206
  Predicted   14 Sep-16 Sep  205/200/190
  90 Day Mean        13 Sep 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep  009/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Sep  012/014
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep  012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%04%

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