Viewing archive of Friday, 13 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 105 (S08E03)
produced a C1/Sf flare at 12/2337 UTC, which was the largest during
the period. Even so, it remains the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the visible disk. It's dominant trailing spot
retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 103
(N16W58) showed some decay in penumbral coverage and exhibited no
significant activity today. Region 107 (N11E03) underwent little
change and was quiescent during the period. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. M-class activity remains possible from
regions 105 and 107.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. An
isolated period of minor storm conditions existed at mid-latitudes
from 13/0600 to 0900 UTC. Coronal hole high speed stream effects
continued to be the main source of the elevated activity. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded
event threshold at 13/1620 UTC, reached a maximum value of 1070 pfu
at 13/1805 UTC, and fell below threshold at value at 13/1810 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of
the period as the coronal hole high speed stream effects subside. A
return to quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the
remainder of the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV flux at
geosynchronous orbit may be elevated into day one of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 206 Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 205/200/190 90 Day Mean 13 Sep 175
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 009/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep to 16 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 04% |
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