Viewing archive of Monday, 9 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 105 (S08E54)
produced the largest event, an M2/2n flare at 09/1752 UTC. This
event was accompanied by faint sympathetic flares from Regions 103
(N15W07) and 96 (S15W57), both of which also produced lesser C-class
flares earlier in the day. Region 105 is the largest spot group on
the visible disk, exhibiting an apparent beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration and an areal coverage in excess of 1200 millionths.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate for the next three days. Region 105 is a
likely source of further M-class flare activity, and could also
produce an isolated major flare. Region 103 is undergoing some
growth in size and complexity and could also be a source of M-class
activity during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with isolated
active periods observed at higher latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field conditions
are expected to be quiet to active during the next three days. An
evolving period of persistent southward Bz may produce isolated
active periods over the next several hours, while coronal hole
effects are expected to produce active conditions during the second
and third days of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 206 Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 210/220/225 90 Day Mean 09 Sep 171
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 019/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 008/008-012/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep to 12 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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