Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 250 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class flares
occurred. New Region 105 (S06E77) is currently rotating around the
east limb and appears to be the return of old active Region 69 (S08,
L=299). So far the area has not produced significant activity. New
Region 104 (N11E59) was also numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 105 is the most likely source of energetic
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm levels. A
shock in the solar wind was observed by the NASA ACE spacecraft at
07/1609 UTC and was followed by a 7 nT sudden impulse on the Boulder
magnetometer at 07/1638 UTC. This shock is believed to be related to
the eruptive filament and CME which occurred on 05 September. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux crossed the 10 pfu event threshold
at 07/0440 UTC after a slow rise over the previous 28 hours. Peak
event flux so far was 208 pfu at 07/1650 UTC. Retrospect analysis
suggests that these particles are most likely associated with the
eruptive filament mentioned above rather than a west limb event as
suggested yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to storm levels over the next 24 hours,
becoming quiet to unsettled by 10 September. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 09 September.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 75% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Sep 183 Predicted 08 Sep-10 Sep 190/200/210 90 Day Mean 07 Sep 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Sep 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Sep 030/055 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Sep-10 Sep 020/025-010/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Sep to 10 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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