Viewing archive of Wednesday, 4 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 247 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Reigon 96 (S16E13)
produced a C2.5/Sf flare at 04/1454 UTC. Region 96 has developed a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the trailing spots. Region 95
(N08W03) has shown some decay in area coverage particularly in the
intermediate spots. A 16 degree solar filament lifted off the disk
at S35W05.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 95 and 96 have M-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storming levels. A
magnetic storm gradually commenced after 04/0000 UTC and sustained
negative Bz resulted in major storm levels. A weak transient was
observed by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at approximately 04/1800 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of active
conditions. The magnetic storm is expected to diminish early on day
one of the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
may reach moderate to high levels on day two and three due to
coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Sep 171 Predicted 05 Sep-07 Sep 165/170/180 90 Day Mean 04 Sep 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Sep 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Sep 037/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Sep-07 Sep 015/015-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Sep to 07 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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