Viewing archive of Tuesday, 3 September 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. An optically uncorrelated M1 flare occurred at 03/0054 UTC. Region 95 (N08E11) maintains its beta-gamma magnetic configuration and is relative unchanged from yesterday. One new region was numbered today, Region 103 (N15E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 95 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak shock, due to activity on 30 August, was observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 03/1710 UTC. Solar wind velocity reached a peak around 390 km/s and the IMF had a Bz deflection of 10 nT. Current Bz is approximately -8 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period due to the weak CME passage and a recurring coronal hole. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit is expected to be moderate to high on day three of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
Class M50%40%40%
Class X05%01%01%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 Sep 171
  Predicted   04 Sep-06 Sep  165/160/170
  90 Day Mean        03 Sep 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep  005/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 Sep  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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