Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 September 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Sep 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C6.7 flare at 01/0933 UTC. Region 95
(N08E38) has simplified to a beta-gamma magnetic configuration,
losing the delta configuration in the trailing spot. The
intermediate spots still show some signs of mixing polarities.
Region 87 (S08W61) now has a simple beta magnetic configuration and
has decreased in area and spot count. Three new regions were
numbered today: Region 99 (S03E27), Region 100 (S20E67), and Region
101 (N03E71).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 95 has the potential for M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with one
three-hour period of isolated active conditions at 01/0300 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Sep 181 Predicted 02 Sep-04 Sep 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 01 Sep 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug 007/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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