Viewing archive of Friday, 30 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels. Region 95
(N07E65) produced an X1/Sf flare at 30/1329 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
457 km/s, a 780 sfu Tenflare, and significant discrete radio bursts.
It appears to have fully rotated on to the visible disk and it
appears to contain a beta-gamma magnetic structure. This region was
also responsible for multiple C-class flares during the period.
Region 87 (S08W33) continued to show steady decay in penumbral
structure as the magnetic delta complex is no longer evident. New
Region 96 (S14E75) was assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels. Regions 87 and 95 are both capable of producing
isolated major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 170 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 170/165/165 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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