Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. After further review of a more comprehensive database set, it appears that the M4 flare that occurred yesterday (no region has been assigned to flare) at 28/1859 UTC could have originated from several different source regions. The most probable source region appears to be from the northeast limb which corresponds to Region 95 (N07E76), which rotated onto the visible disk and became a newly numbered region today. Region 95 did produce the largest flare today, an impulsive M3/Sf flare occurring at 29/1252 UTC with an associated 720 pfu Tenflare. Proximity to limb hinders any meaningful analysis of this region at this time as the most recent white-light images indicate the trailing cluster of spots have yet fully rotated into view. Three other optically uncorrelated low level M-class flares occurred today along with multiple C-class flares. Region 87 (S08W20) showed steady decay over the period although it retains a weak delta magnetic structure in the southeast portion of the spot complex. Despite the region's magnetic structure it only managed to produce minor activity today. The remaining active regions were of little note. Regions 93 (S16E13) and 94 (S17E67) were also assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Aug 169
  Predicted   30 Aug-01 Sep  170/165/155
  90 Day Mean        29 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  007/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  008/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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