Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 90 (S04E20) produced an M4/Sf flare at 28/1859 UTC that had an associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of 736 km/s. A significant Type four radio sweep and a Tenflare of 930 pfu were also associated with this flare. Region 83 (S18W84), which is currently exiting the disk, produced an M1 flare (correlated using SOHO/EIT imagery) at 28/1658 UTC. Region 87 (S08W07) showed growth during the period as a delta magnetic spot became apparent in the southeast portion of the spot group. Region 85 (S08W50) showed a slight growth in penumbral coverage although remained fairly quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 87 has the potential to produce M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
Class M45%45%45%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Aug 163
  Predicted   29 Aug-31 Aug  160/150/145
  90 Day Mean        28 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug  014/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Aug  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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