Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 240 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 90
(S04E20) produced an M4/Sf flare at 28/1859 UTC that had an
associated Type II radio sweep with an estimated shock velocity of
736 km/s. A significant Type four radio sweep and a Tenflare of 930
pfu were also associated with this flare. Region 83 (S18W84), which
is currently exiting the disk, produced an M1 flare (correlated
using SOHO/EIT imagery) at 28/1658 UTC. Region 87 (S08W07) showed
growth during the period as a delta magnetic spot became apparent in
the southeast portion of the spot group. Region 85 (S08W50) showed
a slight growth in penumbral coverage although remained fairly
quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 87 has the potential to produce
M-class activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| Class M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Aug 163 Predicted 29 Aug-31 Aug 160/150/145 90 Day Mean 28 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Aug 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Aug-31 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Aug to 31 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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