Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few C-class X-ray flares
occurred. Regions 83 (S18W71), 85 (S08W37), and 87 (S08E06) remain
the most interesting sunspot groups on the visible disk. New Regions
91 (N06E37) and 92 (S19E04) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A low-level M-class flare is possible in any of Regions
83, 85, or 87.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 161 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 155/150/145 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 011/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 008/008-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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