Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was high. An X3/1f flare occurred at 24/0112 UTC in Region 69. This region has rotated out of view beyond the west solar limb near SW08. The flare was accompanied by Type II/IV radio sweeps and discrete radio bursts that included 1200 sfu output at 2695 MHz. Region 87 (S07E47) also produced an M1/1n flare at 24/0548 UTC. Other regions of note include 83 (S18W27) and 85 (S09E03). Both produced flares today but without significant x-ray output. New Region 89 (S16E62) rotated into view.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. M-class activity is possible in Regions 83, 85, and 87.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began at 24/0130 UTC, reached a 29 pfu peak at 24/0210 UTC, and dropped below the 1 pfu event threshold at 24/1825 UTC. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 24/0140 UTC, reached a 317 pfu peak at 24/0835 UTC, and remains in progress. The current proton flux is about 200 pfu. These proton events are associated with the X3 flare discussed in Part IA.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to become unsettled to active over the next day or two in response to flare/CME activity of the past few days. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to continue in progress for the next 24-48 hours.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 10%05%05%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Aug 196
  Predicted    25 Aug-27 Aug  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        24 Aug 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Aug  012/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 15%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 20%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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