Viewing archive of Friday, 23 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. There have been numerous low level M-class events during the period from Regions 69 (S08W85), 83 (S19W15), 85 (S09E16) and 87 (S07E60). The most impressive was an M1/2n at 23/0549 UTC from Region 85 with an associated Type II radio sweep. A Type IV radio sweep was observed among several reported events at 23/1415 UTC. New Region 88 (S22W28) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 69, 83, 85, and 87 all have potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0440 UTC ended at 23/0040 UTC. The event reached a maximum of 36 pfu at 22/0940 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 24-25 August as a possible result of the M5 event observed at 22/0157 UTC. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 26 August.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Aug 225
  Predicted    24 Aug-26 Aug  215/210/210
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  008/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  020/025-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm 15%15%05%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%10%01%

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