Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 August 2002

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 69 (S08W58) produced an X1/1b event at 21/0534 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep. This region continues to produce the majority of C-class and M-class events and maintains its beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 still posses the potential for an isolated major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to severe storm conditions. The ACE satellite observed an extended period of southward Bz in the solar wind from 20/2048-21/1247 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels are still possible as a result of the solar activity from Region 69 over the past several days.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Aug 220
  Predicted   22 Aug-24 Aug  220/215/215
  90 Day Mean        21 Aug 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Aug  034/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug  012/015-012/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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