Viewing archive of Monday, 19 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69
(S08W30) produced an M2/Sf at 19/1034 UTC. Region 69 remains
relatively unchanged with multiple magnetic delta configurations.
Further developments of the M2.2/1b at 18/2125 UTC mentioned in
yesterday's forecast indicates a partial halo CME, Type II (860
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 79 (S22W08) continues to
show gradual growth. New Region 85 (S11E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storming levels.
Minor storming occurred early in the summary period. A sustained
northern Bz began at around 19/0800 UTC bringing unsettled to active
conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 237 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 245/240/230 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 021/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 012/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 05% |
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