Viewing archive of Monday, 19 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69 (S08W30) produced an M2/Sf at 19/1034 UTC. Region 69 remains relatively unchanged with multiple magnetic delta configurations. Further developments of the M2.2/1b at 18/2125 UTC mentioned in yesterday's forecast indicates a partial halo CME, Type II (860 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 79 (S22W08) continues to show gradual growth. New Region 85 (S11E69) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storming levels. Minor storming occurred early in the summary period. A sustained northern Bz began at around 19/0800 UTC bringing unsettled to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 237
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug  245/240/230
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  021/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  012/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%25%
Minor storm15%05%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%30%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm10%01%05%

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