Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69 (S08W39) produced three M-class events, the largest an M2.3 at 18/1005 UTC (optically correlated via SOHO/LASCO EIT195 imagery). Region 69 has remained unchanged in area coverage and multiple magnetic delta configurations. Spot count has increased to 74 spots due to the slight dissolution to the large central penumbra region. Region 79 (S22E04) has grown rapidly in area and spot count to 310 millionths and 38 spots. New Region 84 (S16E64) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The expected interplanetary shock from the M5/CME event on 16 Aug was observed at the L1 position by the NASA/ACE spacecraft at 18/1810 UTC. A corresponding sudden impulse of 27 nT was recorded on the Boulder magnetometer at 18/1848 UTC. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded event threshold at 18/1420 UTC, reached a maximum value of 1590 pfu at 18/1655 UTC, and fell below threshold value at 18/1905 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active levels with a chance of isolated minor storming. Active levels are expected on day one of the forecast period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for day two and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Aug 241
  Predicted    19 Aug-21 Aug  245/245/230
  90 Day Mean        18 Aug 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug  008/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Aug  015/020
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug  025/025-012/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug to 21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%25%
Minor storm 30%15%10%
Major-severe storm 20%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm 30%15%10%
Major-severe storm 20%10%01%

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