Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 August 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity remained at moderate levels. Region 66
(N14W10) produced an M1/Sf flare at 15/0605 UTC. It continued to
grow at a gradual pace. Region 67 (N33E04) produced an isolated
C-class subflare as it continued to grow at a gradual pace. Region
69 (S07E24) produced occasional C-class subflares as it continued to
grow in size and magnetic complexity. It is now large enough to be a
naked eye sunspot and contains a very strong delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Isolated low level M-class flares are expected. There is a
chance for an isolated major flare from Region 69.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels during
most of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began
at geosynchronous orbit at 14/0900 UTC ended at 14/1950 UTC. The
maximum for this event was 26 pfu at 14/1620 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate to high
levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to increase to active to minor storm levels near the start
of the period following yesterday's long-duration M2/partial-halo
CME event. Field activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to
active levels on 17 August as CME effects subside. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on 18 August. There is a slight chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event during the period. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 210 Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 215/215/220 90 Day Mean 15 Aug 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 025/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug to 18 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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