Viewing archive of Tuesday, 13 August 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 69 (S07E50) produced an M1/1f flare at 13/1904 UTC associated with minor discrete radio emission. Region 69 showed a minor increase in penumbral coverage and remained a large, complex spot group with multiple magnetic delta configurations. Region 66 (N14E16) showed a minor increase in spots and area with some polarity mixing evident within its intermediate spots. Minor growth was also observed in Region 63 (N18W14) and Region 72 (S18W48). Region 58 (S07W89) produced a few subflares as it crossed the west limb. Two slow coronal mass ejections (estimated plane of sky velocity about 205 km/sec) occurred during the period. The source for the CMEs appeared to be beyond the southeast limb. New Region 77 (S18E48) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 69 is likely to produce isolated M-class flares during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels until 13/0600 UTC due to coronal hole effects. Field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels during the rest of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M 40%40%40%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 192
  Predicted    14 Aug-16 Aug  190/190/195
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  009/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  013/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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